风险类型(已知,已知-未知,未知-未知)
在项⽬⼯作中,我们会听到“已知-未知的风险”或“未知-未知的风险”这样的说法。对于不同类型风险的这些术
语我们该如何来理解呢?下⾯对其做⼀下简要说明。
在项⽬管理理论中,项⽬风险被分为三种类型:已知-已知(或简称已知),已知-未知和未知-未知。其中,第⼀个已知/未知:风险是否被识别出来。也就是可能发⽣影响的风险事件是否被认识到。第⼆个已知/未知:风险发⽣的可能性和危害程度是否可以被估计。
所以,这三类风险的含义是:已知(已知-已知)——明确可能发⽣什么风险,且对风险发⽣的可能性和影响有准确了解。⼀个常被引⽤的例⼦
就是⼈的死亡。已知-未知 ——明确可能发⽣什么风险,但对风险发⽣的⼏率和严重性并不了解。⼀个例⼦就是机器会发⽣故障的
风险。未知-未知 ——不了解可能发⽣什么风险,因此也不了解发⽣的⼏率和影响的严重性。例如美国总统⼩布什在演讲的时候被扔鞋。补充:
Known Risk - where the risk is clear and no uncertainty exists. A popular example used here is death.
Known-Unknown Risks - which are risks that you are aware of but don't know exactly how they will affect or influence the project. An example of this is a machine that will, at some point, require maintenance.
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Unknown-Unknown Risks – which are risks that we cannot imagine and therefore have no awareness of. An example is a sudden illness that disrupts the workforce and results in a lot of time off by personnel at the same time.